Severe Storms Possible In Northeast Oklahoma Today

A dry line will establish well west of I-35 this afternoon and scattered storms will begin to form as early as midday across the Eastern OK in response to cooler air aloft moving into the region.

Morning storms in the OK-TX panhandle region are moving into western OK this morning.  This activity may help to decrease the surface instability across northwestern OK this morning and early afternoon.   

A cluster of storm activity may also form southward across Texas and move into Eastern Ok by early afternoon, while additional storms would form later this afternoon off the dry line and closer to northwestern and west central OK.  The main upper level system will be lifting northeast of the state later this evening, but is now projected to remain near the Kansas vicinity tomorrow.  This will create an interesting set up not only for Thursday but also for early Friday morning across portions of eastern OK.

Due to the systems relatively slow movement, the dry line will remain west of the region through tomorrow.  Thursday afternoon the dry line may still be west of the Tulsa area allowing for an unstable atmosphere across the eastern third of the state.  The upper level system will be north of the state, but a vort will round the base of the low and interact with the atmosphere causing storms to form.  Surface winds tomorrow should be from the south for most of the day allowing for some convergence near the dry line.  These storms will have the chance to be severe with large hail, damaging wind, and a threat of tornadoes. 

Data this morning has really changed regarding the position of the upper level low for Friday.  This requires me to add a chance of pre-dawn thunderstorms for pre-dawn Friday across southeastern Kansas and Northeastern OK.  Normally I wouldn't be too concerned with severe storms with this type of set up, but the moisture content may still be very high early Friday morning.  A quick round of strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out before the cold front finally clears the area Friday morning bringing dry air and cool air back to the region.

The upper air flow will be the north this weekend basically keeping the state in cooler air.  Morning lows will drop into the upper 40s and highs will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  

 A blocky pattern in the continental U.S. will exist next week keeping the central and southern plains storm free until about Thursday into Friday.