Cold And Active Weather Pattern

The cold front is located to our south this morning across the Red River Valley.  Moisture is attempting to move up and over the boundary this morning and a few spotty showers will be likely across far southern OK over the next few hours.   

Later today a few scattered showers will also be possible across Northern OK as the boundary located southward begins slowly lifting back to the north.  The temps will more than likely remain in the mid 40s today across northern OK while some locations across southeastern OK will bump into the lower 50s.   

Saturday the warm sector should expand to include all of northern OK and part of southern Kansas.  This means our temps will move back into the upper 50s and some lower 60s while the rain begins to develop and move across the region during the day along with a gusty south wind. Some marginal instability across southeastern Ok may lead to a few rumbles of thunder. 

The cold air will be racing southward as the precip begins moving eastward.  I don't think we'll see any wintry weather concerns Saturday late or Sunday early as the precip will be exiting before the deeper cold air arrives. Temperatures will turn sharply colder Saturday evening and will set the stage for a cold Sunday through Wednesday period. 

The big concern this morning is the data for Monday.  Over the past few days, I don't think the models have been resolving the upper level system correctly.  This morning the 06NAM and the EURO (from 00z Friday) may have a better handle on bringing the back side energy across the state.  The 06NAM is very bullish (and probably overdone) with a snow event across northeastern OK, while the EURO brushes the southern and southeastern sections of the area with some wintry mix on Monday.  I have introduced a 30 pop for this period and will mention the possibility of some wintry weather for this time period.  Stay tuned, changes will no doubt be made as the true nature of the upper level system becomes evident.