High Fire Danger

Sunny, windy, and warm conditions will be likely today with highs near 80.  Cooler air will arrive Friday.

The main issue today will center on the high fire danger across the state and most of Northeastern OK.  South to southwest surface winds from 20 to 30 mph will be common by later this afternoon as daytime highs move into the upper 70s near 80.  Dry vegetation combined with low relative humidity may result in a fast fire spread condition across the state.  The exact parameters for a Red Flag Warning may not be met in all locations, but conditions will be very close.  Please use extreme caution today. A Red Flag Warning will be posted for the Tulsa county area.

The next fast moving system will slide across the area late tonight into early Friday morning.  Almost all of the model data keeps the area void of precipitation, but the severe weather parameters such as surface based cape, instability, and shear will be very strong for a few hours late tonight through early Friday.  If a storm can manage to form and become rooted into the boundary layer, significant severe weather would occur.  We'll be watching very closely during this overnight period. The surface low will slide across central OK overnight with a warm front rapidly lifting northeastward.  The best shot of a storm would be across far NE OK, SE Kansas, SW MO, and NW Ark.  I'll keep this pop at a 20% mention.  The actual cold front will rapidly follow by early Friday bringing cooler and drier air back to the region.  Raw output from the NAM buf files continue to indicate temperatures will fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s for Friday afternoon with gusty northwest winds around 10 to 20 mph. 

The weekend appears nice with morning lows in the 30s and 40s with Saturday highs in the mid-50s and Sunday nearing the upper 60s.  

The EURO and GFS both support another system approaching by Wednesday night into Thursday of next week.  We'll keep the chance for showers and storms for the late Wednesday time period with the front arriving around Thursday morning.