Thursday Morning Update

Well...this is interesting!  The massive cold front is surging southeast this morning across the far southeastern OK area.  Strong north winds, clouds, scattered showers, and much colder air have arrived across the state.  Our highs for the day have already been reached early this morning, but daytime readings will reside in the lower 40s for most of the day.  Most of the precip this morning is well west of our immediate area, but later today will be moving eastward into the northeastern OK area.  Temps may drop into the upper 30s around the 5pm to 7pm time frame with additional precip moving across the NE OK and SE Kansas area.  Here's where it gets really interesting.   

The last few runs of data continue to support a rain to snow mix across the region tonight.  Yes, a chance of snow in May! The ground temps obviously are exceptionally warm and no major issues would be expected travel wise with any wintry precipitation unless something extremely unexpected occurs.  One of our models yesterday ( GFS) suggested some multi-inch snowfall for areas north of the Tulsa area into southern Kansas, while some of the other data was not as bullish.  This morning that data continues to keep the higher probability of snow/mix northward.  But we're going to mention a small chance of some showers changing to or mixing with snow later tonight along and north of the 412 corridor.  No major issues are expected if we do see some winter mix.  Frankly, we don't exactly know what will or will not happen with this system tonight regarding the wintry precip possibilities.  Even the mention of this type of weather in early May across NE OK is unprecedented.  I could be mistaken, but I don't recall snow occurring in May in Tulsa.  Bottom line:  rain later today.  Maybe a little mix later tonight.  No big deal.  Probably wont happen.

The next issue is the chance for a freeze Friday morning across part of Eastern OK.  We feel confident that locations along and west of I-35 will be at or below freezing, but locations east may still have some clouds to deal with early tomorrow morning.  The NAM has been suggesting the clouds could clear out for a couple of hours pre-dawn, and this would knock the temps down into the upper 20s and lower 30s.  GFS data would suggest the clouds should remain and keep us just a hair above freezing.  Again, no clear cut winner.  We're going to keep a 32 on the map for Friday morning and prepare folks for the possibility of an early May freeze. 

The main upper level low is still expected to remain cut-off from the upper air flow and will require we keep a chance for showers Friday.  We may also see another shot of showers with some sleet or snow mix into Saturday morning across extreme northeastern OK.  By Sunday the system will moving Eastward and we'll begin to experience improving weather conditions and warmer spring like weather early next week.  Daytime highs this weekend will include some 60s with lower to mid-70s by Tuesday.  The next cold front will move across the state around Wednesday of next week with a chance of thunderstorms. 

Bottom line:  We're moving into an unprecedented weather system for early May across the state.  Much colder air along with scattered showers and strong north winds are highly certain.  The uncertainty and low confidence portion of the forecast involves the potential for some flurries or mix late tonight and the possibility of near or sub-freezing temps tomorrow morning.   

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 84 recorded at 3:08pm.

The normal daily average high is 76 and the low is 55.

Our daily record high is 94 from 1943.  The record low is 32 from 1909.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter  @alancrone

I'll be discussing the forecast today on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the midday hours. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Take the big coat!

Alan Crone

KOTV