Monday Morning Update

The active weather pattern will remain today and for part of tomorrow before we may get a brief break.  Additional storms are possible by the end of the week into part of the weekend, but the main focus remains for severe weather development this afternoon and tonight across eastern OK.  Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will once again be possible.  Over 300 reports of severe weather have been received with this system nationwide including 28 tornado reports, several of these in Oklahoma.  These numbers are preliminary and may change later today.   Now to the forecast.

The main upper level trough remains to our west and northwest this morning and will provide another round of storms this afternoon and tonight that will be severe.  The parameters will be similar to yesterday with moist southerly flow, steep lapse rates aloft, and wind profiles supporting rotating thunderstorms.  Another significant severe weather event is likely to occur again today and early evening across portions of eastern OK.   The most likely scenario is for isolated storms to develop between 1pm and 2pm along the I-35 corridor, possible across south-central OK near the Arbuckle's to just south or near OKC as a jet streak rounds the base of the main upper level trough and impacts portions of the state.   Additional showers and storms may develop along a line from South-central OK to near Tulsa by 3pm to 5pm and advance eastward.  Some high resolution data support a few storms forming a small complex and moving into east-central OK by early evening and push into far southeastern OK from 10pm to midnight.  The actual surface front may not arrive until Tuesday morning, and this means some additional storms may possible Tuesday morning through midday near northern OK.  The higher likelihood for Tuesday storms however will be confined to southeastern and east-central OK through the midday time period. 

The data gets a little messy for the middle of the week with the latest NAM runs backing a boundary northward, bringing south winds rapidly back to the region, and developing thunderstorms Wednesday across the northern portions of the state.  GFS-EURO, for the most part, keep Wednesday quiet for the NE OK vicinity before additional storm chances arrive Thursday into part of the weekend with another boundary nearby.  Our focus remains on the short term portion of the forecast, and we'll not make any big changes to the extended numbers at this point.  This means we'll keep only slight mentions for storms in the forecast for Thursday through Saturday, but confidence levels remain very low.

Temperatures today should move back into the lower and mid-80s for eastern OK along with some early morning sun followed by increasing clouds. Tuesday morning lows will be in the upper 60s.   Highs tomorrow could range from 78 to 82, but the remainder of the week will feature highs in the lower to mid-80s.  Morning lows will be in the upper 50s Wednesday and the lower to mid-60s for the remainder of the week.

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 83 recorded at 2:37pm. 

Rainfall yesterday was only .10 of an inch bringing our total year to date to 11.11".  The normal rainfall should be 14.19 leaving a deficit of -3.08 for the year to date.

The normal daily averages include a high of 80 and a low of 60.

Daily records include a high of 94 from 2006 and also 1956.  The low is 42 recorded on this date in 1981. 

You'll hear my regional and state-wide forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter@alancrone

 Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Please remain aware of your weather surroundings this afternoon and evening.  

Alan Crone

KOTV