Friday Morning Update

Expect partly sunny and mild conditions today with highs near 80.  An isolated storm is possible across far NE OK and SE Kansas today.  Storm chances will remain high Sunday.  Some may be severe.  

I'll keep the discussion short today.  

A weak boundary located south of Tulsa this morning will gradually lift northward later today.  This morning a few scattered showers or storms may develop across far NE OK into SE KS and SW MO into the mid-day and afternoon periods.  Most of the operational and short term models keep most of the area dry.  The 06z RAP develops a few storms around Craig and Ottawa County this afternoon.  We'll keep a 10% pop in the forecast for the areas northeast of Tulsa.  The GFS is a little more bullish on pops this morning, but so far, we see no signs of any developing.   

Highs this afternoon are expected to remain in the upper 70s or lower 80s with a sun-cloud mix. Saturday should feature increasing clouds, south winds, and highs nearing 80.  A few showers or storms seem possible Saturday across far western OK, but the pops will remain too far west of the Tulsa area to include at this moment for Saturday.   

 A strong cold front is expected to arrive Sunday with storms likely.  A few of the storms may become severe.  Areas of south-central OK into the North Central Texas area may see severe weather with the Sunday event and we may also have a few severe storms near NE OK.  Sunday evening could support pockets of heavy rainfall along and east of highway 75-69 through the pre-dawn Monday hours.  Colder air is expected to arrive Monday.   

The temp forecast Monday into Tuesday is expected to be below the seasonal average with highs in the 50s Monday.  This air mass may be colder than currently modeled!   If the clouds clear out Monday evening into Tuesday morning, temps will be very close to freezing.  Freeze and frost headlines may be required by Tuesday morning for portions of northeastern OK. 

The pattern should support another strong storm system nearing the area by the end of next week but the data does converge on specific solutions.  We will keep a chance of storms in the forecast for Thursday and Friday of next week based on pattern recognition. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 87 recorded at 5:08pm.

The normal daily average high is 71 and the low is 48.

Our daily records include a high of 93 from 1972 and a low of 30 from 1940. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning.   

You'll hear our forecast in Tulsa on numerous Clear Channel Radio stations, including KMOD and The Twister. 

Thanks for reading and have a safe day.  

Alan Crone

KOTV