Monday Morning Update

We are tracking a large area of showers and thunderstorms this morning across part of central and southwestern OK. This severe complex of storm activity is moving southeast and should continue for the next several hours but remain away from eastern OK.  We'll have a chance of scattered showers and storms developing or moving into northern OK this morning, and then again around midday.  The threat of severe weather, while not zero, is low this morning.  Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and gusty winds near 40 miles per hour will be possible. Temperatures today should top out in the lower 80s.  Winds will be from the south of this morning, but quickly back from the northeast in the 10 to 15 mph range as the afternoon progresses. The upper air flow for the next several days will remain conducive for late night and early morning storm complexes to move from Kansas into part of northern Oklahoma. But at this point in the forecast cycle, we see no major signs or signals that would encourage us to promote high probabilities for these complexes to arrive. At this point, will keep only slight chance is for additional late night and early morning storms in the forecast for the next several days with a weak frontal boundary near the region.

This boundary will continue to slide southward into southern Oklahoma later this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon and early evening across the southern third of the state.  This boundary should become diffuse by Wednesday into Thursday. At this point in the forecast process, we will continue to have a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms but the probability will remain on the low side.

Most of the available model data this morning indicates a few showers and thunderstorms may continue to be possible Tuesday and Wednesday across portions of the state. But the higher probability this evening and tomorrow, may occur across the southern reside the state.  Our chances will remain low for Tuesday, and we'll bump pops back to 40% for Wednesday.

The data diverge for Thursday and Friday with some data suggesting higher pops lingering into Friday.  We'll keep the pops low for Thursday and currently out of the Friday forecast. 

Temperatures for the middle part of the week will be slightly below average, what are expected to increase by the end of the week closer to seasonal norms.

Available weather data also indicates the approaching weekend will be humid and warmer with morning lows in the 70's and daytime highs in the lower 90s. 

In summary, showers and thunderstorms will be more numerous this morning through midday as a decaying storm complex move across the southwestern OK area. A few showers or storms should move into northern OK this morning.  We may have some additional showers and storms developing later today.  Temperatures this afternoon will stay in the lower 80s with partly to mostly cloudy conditions and northeast winds at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Most of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas should the rain free this evening, but scattered showers and thunderstorms may be possible from I-40 into southern OK.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 92 recorded at 12:56pm.

The normal daily average high is 90 and the low is 70.

Our daily records include a high of 103 from 1934.  The daily record low is 56 from 2004.

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I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz.   These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications. 

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone

KOTV