Monday Morning Update

Monday, July 28th 2014, 4:32 am

By: Alan Crone

We're tracking a cold front located to the south of the Tulsa region this morning providing a few scattered showers and storms along the Red River Valley.   I anticipate most if not all of this precip to remain well south or west of the metro and northeastern OK for the day. Our neighbors across the southern third of the state will experience a few morning showers and storms. Drier air has spread into the northern third of the state behind north breezes around 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures today will range from 85 to 90 with mostly to partly sunny conditions. Our rain chances will increase late Tuesday night into Wednesday and should be exiting Thursday morning. The cooler than normal air will remain for the entire week.

The upper air flow features a ridge of high pressure in the mid-levels located to our west. A strong upper level trough is located across the upper Midwest into southeastern Canada. Another trough is located across northwestern Canada. The prevailing upper air flow over the southern plains is from the north and northwest. This means any disturbance to our northwest will have a chance to move into the area. The data suggest we'll see a wave late Tuesday night into Wednesday and then exiting the region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The result will be increasing rain chances and decreasing temperatures for the middle of the week. Computer guides indicate highs in the upper 70s for Wednesday, but pockets of rain-cooled air could easily keep some locations in the upper 60s and lower 70s for the majority of the day.

This morning’s data supports a rapid increase of precipitable water values for Wednesday which should yield some decent rainfall totals in a few locations across the region. The instability factor, while not zero will be low and no severe storms will be anticipated.

The pattern may not change until the following week. This means the up-coming weekend may continue to feature cooler than normal temperatures for the last week in July and the first few days of August.   There may be a few small showers Sunday, but the chance will remain near or less than 10%.

Yesterday’s high was 94 recorded at 1:21pm. The daily average-normal high is 94 and the low is 73. Daily records include a high of 109 from 1934. The record low is 58 from 2005.

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I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz.   These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone

KOTV