Tracking Some Storms

Thursday, September 18th 2014, 4:43 am

By: Alan Crone

I'll be rather short today with the discussion as I need to focus more energy on the timing of the next two weather systems to impact the state.

We have two distinct time periods of active weather to focus toward this morning. The first will involve a chance of thunderstorms this morning and today. The second will wrap around part of the weekend when the left-overs from tropical system Odile may be nearing the state. Both time periods offer some problems with exact timing.

Our data yesterday indicated we would be dealing with thunderstorms this morning across southern Kansas and northern OK. And we're seeing storms moving into far northeastern OK at this time (3:30am). The hi-res data will continue to support a chance of showers and storms moving into portions of northeastern OK this morning. And we could have some additional storms later this afternoon across southern sections along a southward moving outflow boundary. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with hail and wind the main issue. The chances will remain from 40 to 60% for the time period with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Some lower 90s can't be ruled out in a few locations.

The second active weather period will be sometime this weekend as the current Odile circulation and remnant moisture attempts to become absorbed into a slow moving system impacting part of the state. The data has been all over the map regarding the specific outcome for the weekend but the chances for rain and thunderstorm activity remain somewhat high. This specific data would keep most of Saturday dry and not bring the rain into the eastern OK vicinity until late Saturday night into Sunday. The actual placement and timing of the system is of low confidence in my forecast but I'll continue to keep the higher chances for eastern OK from late Saturday into Sunday morning and midday. The GFS is slightly more northward and EURO is slower and more south and southwest of the eastern OK vicinity for Saturday evening. The GFS brings the surface front across the area Sunday clearing out the precip by midday but the EURO keeps a weak system near the state for all of Sunday and even lingers into a few days next week. We still have a lot of work to do regarding the timing of this system.

The temps will eventually cool down into the 70s for daytime highs and mid to upper 50s for morning lows for a few days next week. But we'll remain warm and muggy today and Friday. If all goes as planned, we'll be dry Friday and Friday night for the football games across the eastern third of the state.