Tracking A Thursday Cold Front

Tuesday, September 30th 2014, 4:42 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning. We're moving into an active weather pattern over the next 48 hours. A strong upper level system will be approaching the area soon. This will increase our rain and thunderstorm chances for portions of northern Oklahoma Thursday even though a few showers or storms may brush the northern sections of the state early tomorrow morning. A few of the storms may be strong to severe Thursday across eastern OK. Temperatures this afternoon will once again move into the middle or upper 80s along with sunshine and a few clouds.

The main upper level system is located across the Rockies this morning. This disturbance will rapidly lift to the northeast today and tonight. A dry line feature will be established across far western Oklahoma this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms a possibility. Almost all of these showers and storms will remain too far west or northwest to impact our area. But late tonight into Wednesday morning a strong jet streak will enter the southern plains. This will enhance a few scattered showers and storms early Wednesday morning near the Oklahoma and Kansas State Line area. A few of these storms could be strong with some hail the main issue. Most of the model data is now confining the higher probability across southern Kansas early Wednesday morning. But I'm still inclined to keep a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms near the Tulsa area early tomorrow morning.

Late Wednesday afternoon and evening additional thunderstorms will try to develop across Northwestern Oklahoma in south central Kansas. Some of these should move southward into Oklahoma by early Thursday morning. Thursday mid-morning to early afternoon, the actual cold front will be moving across the area providing additional shower or thunderstorm support for eastern Oklahoma. The timing of this front has changed in the data compared to yesterday's model runs at this hour. I will not make any major changes to the frontal passage for Thursday midday. This means the higher probability for the Tulsa Metro will continue to be Thursday morning through the noon hour with additional chances Thursday afternoon being confined to areas along and east of Highway 69-75. Additional showers and storms will also develop along the cold front Thursday night south of I-40 across southeast OK and northern Texas. Once the main upper level trough clears the state Thursday afternoon and evening, the surface cold front will rapidly move out of the state allowing for dry into her air to infiltrate northern Oklahoma by early Friday morning. This means Friday morning temperatures will start in the lower 50s and finish in the mid-70s. Friday afternoon should be a spectacular fall day with sunshine, northwest winds at 10 to 20 miles per hour, and cooler conditions compared to the previous week.

Saturday morning we will experience temperatures in the lower 50s with clear sky and light wind. Saturday afternoon's daytime highs will also top out in the mid to upper 70 s with Sunday afternoons temperatures slightly warmer in the lower 80s. Another minor warming trend will commence early next week with a few days experiencing slightly above normal temperatures.

The threat for severe storms with this approaching system will be highest well north of the Tulsa today and most of tomorrow, but we cannot rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms as this storm system begins to impact Oklahoma. The main threat would be large hail and damaging winds Thursday as the cold front moves across the area. Remember, we can and do have severe weather during the fall season in the state. The main severe weather season is obviously in the spring, but a secondary severe weather max occurs during the fall months. Thank you for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog. Have a super great day! Thank you.

Alan Crone