Spring About to Show Its Ugly Side

Our friends in north Texas just had a startling reminder that severe weather season is far from over and we might be getting a similar wake-up call. So far, our spring has been relatively docile with only a few instances of widespread severe storms. That's about to change late this weekend and early next week.

We're in between storm systems for now so the weather looks nice and quiet for Mayfest among many other festivities in Green Country through Saturday. The first real impacts of severe weather will be felt across our state Saturday evening – mainly out west of I-35. A dryline (the boundary between moist and dry air) will be the focus for storm development, but warm air aloft over eastern Oklahoma may prevent those storms from reaching us. Any storms that do make it to our side of the state overnight Saturday into Sunday could pack a punch. The severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Saturday is shown in the first attached map.

Sunday is when the real action begins for us. That slow-moving storm system inches further east and meets up with a volatile atmosphere. Warm temperatures at the surface along with abundant moisture meeting up with the storm's strong dynamics (wind shear) will give us a scenario for a classic severe storm outbreak complete with high winds, large hail, and tornadoes. With very little movement in the cold front, our region is under the gun for the same type of weather Monday with all of those ingredients still in place. The second map shows the set-up for severe weather Sunday into Monday. Both days have a relatively high potential for tornadoes, and Monday may be the day with that higher potential centered over Green Country.

The severe threat may last into Tuesday as well depending on how the system evolves in the wake of several rounds of severe storms. It's a multi-day severe weather event that we anticipate will partially make up for a quiet start to storm season, unfortunately. It'll also be a test of stamina for us, meteorologists!

This severe weather potential is nothing new, but is coming after a long streak of relatively quiet weather. Thus, it's important to re-examine your severe weather plan for those two days. Make sure you'd have a safe place to be at all times in case the weather turns ominous, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. We'll be tracking the potential all weekend long and hoping this is the lone streak of severe weather for the spring. It's a serious weather event, but may take until Monday before everyone sees the stormy weather.

You can follow my updates on the storms both on Facebook and on Twitter: @GroganontheGO!