Afternoon Update.

Barring any surprises, we expect to stay below the 90 degree mark today for the first time since Jun 21. Also, we do not have any triple digit days in the forecast anytime soon, although it is certainly too early to say we are done with those. Last year, our last triple digit day occurred on Sep 13 and until we get some decent rainfall around here, triple digits cannot be ruled out. The dry soils and basically dormant vegetation could easily result in another spike in temperatures whenever we get a sunny day and a southerly wind. The map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, shows the number of triple digit days across the state so far this year. Hot as we have been this year, we are far behind where we were last year if that is any consolation.

Temperatures today are expected to remain below 90 with the cloudy skies, chance of a few showers, and an easterly wind. Wednesday will see a gusty southerly wind, a little more sunshine, and only a slight chance of a shower or some thunder. That should put us back into the mid 90s for a daytime high which will be followed by mid-upper 90s on Thursday. After that, we are looking at a more significant and longer lasting break in the heat with daytime highs in the 80s for Friday, through the weekend, and right on into the following week.

Now, if we could only get some rain.

Fortunately, the pattern aloft that is developing will be a more unsettled one that is expected to persist well into next week. As mentioned yesterday, our wind flow aloft will be what we refer to as a NW flow and that pattern is notorious for pulling surprises. For example, most of the shower activity today has been much further north than was anticipated yesterday. As I write this, showers have redeveloped in NW OK and are moving eastward so we have a chance for later this afternoon into the evening hours. However, those are expected to weaken considerably as the day wears on so don't get your hopes up too high.

There will be another chance of rain overnight and into the morning hours, but most of that activity should be along and south of I-40. A few showers/storms will also be possible during the day, but the chances are only around the 20% level.

Thursday will also have a gusty southerly wind and a chance of showers/storms during the day, but the best chances should be during the evening/overnight hours and into the day on Friday. That is when a stronger cool front will arrive, bringing a better chance of rain and the cooler conditions that will persist into next week. Also, the NW flow will persist through the weekend keeping partly cloudy to at times mostly cloudy skies and at least a chance of showers/storms again on Saturday. For now, I have removed the rain chances for Sunday and into early next week, but that is subject to change. Bottom line is that we at least have chances of rain over the coming days with this more unsettled pattern aloft. What rains we do receive will not be drought breakers, but we will take whatever we can get.

In the meantime, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot