EXCLUSIVE POLL: Fallin Leading Governor's Race, Lead Slipping

With only days to go, Governor Mary Fallin's lead to keep her job is slipping, according to new numbers from our exclusive poll.

Thursday, October 30th 2014, 11:44 pm

By: News On 6

EXCLUSIVE POLL: Fallin Leading Governor's Race, Lead Slipping

Loren Cosby, News On 6

With only days to go, Governor Mary Fallin's lead to keep her job is slipping, according to new numbers from our exclusive poll.

It's our final poll before Oklahomans vote on Tuesday, and while the gap between Fallin and Democrat Joe Dorman is narrowing, there may not be enough time before Election Day for Dorman to catch up.

Our survey of 949 registered voters likely to cast ballots shows Fallin is still leading, but now by single digits.

The incumbent Republican has dropped below 50 percent, with 48 percent of the vote.

Dorman, her democrat challenger, is making a surge in the final days with 40 percent of those surveyed saying they plan to vote for the state representative.

From late August through September, Fallin held on to 50 percent, while Dorman has gained eight points since late August.

News On 6 Pollster Bill Shapard predicts there may be fewer straight party votes this year as Fallin continues to underperform other Republicans also running statewide races.

"In fact, one-in-five Republicans are voting for Joe Dorman. Now, ten years ago this would have spelled doom for any Republican on the statewide ballot," Shapard said.

It's a different story this year.

Shapard said it does not appear Dorman has enough GOP and conservative support to win Tuesday.

Part of his problem is 39 percent of all voters have a favorable opinion of him, but one-out-of-three still don't have any opinion.

It also appears Dorman's efforts to tie Fallin to the unpopular and outgoing, schools superintendent, Janet Barresi, has not been successful.

That's reflected in Fallin's favorable ratings which are up over our earlier polls.

Now, 30 percent have a very favorable opinion, while 24 percent view her somewhat favorably.

Another interesting fact is that, of the small number of undecided, 73 percent are women and 53 percent of the undecided are Democrats.

Only 35 percent of the undecided are Republicans which, Shapard said, could be another advantage for Fallin.

Complete Poll Results

The survey of 949 likely voters was conducted Oct. 25-29 by SoonerPoll.com, using a dual frame of both cell phones and land lines. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.18 percentage points. Results are weighted by age and party, stratified to Oklahoma likely voter demographics.