Tracking A Cool Down

Monday, October 27th 2014, 4:36 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning. We're tracking a cold front that will bring a chance for some showers and storms and cooler air. This boundary doesn't arrive until late this afternoon into the evening. This means today's temperatures will once again be well above the seasonal average with highs in the mid-80s. It will be a few degrees cooler than our past weekend, but not by much.

This unseasonably warm air mass allowed our weekend to feel more like early Summer than early Fall, but the a cool down is on the way with the frontal passage later tonight. The air mass ahead of the boundary will more than likely remain capped to surface based convection. This means our chances for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, while not zero, will be low. The better chance will occur post frontal (slightly behind the boundary) later this evening as the front progresses southeast. Some of the hi-res data suggest we could see a few showers or storms developing after the 6pm to 7pm hour as the surface boundary slides east and southeast.

The window for the Tulsa metro will be relatively small beginning around 6pm and ending around 11pm. The window for east-central and southeastern OK will continue from about 10pm to 2am, with any showers or storms located across far southeastern or eastern OK around 5am Tuesday morning. The threat for severe weather is low and mainly confined to some hail and gusty winds with a few storms. I should stress that some locations will not receive any precipitation tonight as the front passes.

Cooler air will replace our summer-like air mass for the rest of the week with another cool-down expected Thursday into the weekend. Temperatures tomorrow morning should start in the lower 50s and finish around 70 with northeast winds and sunshine. Tuesday and Wednesday morning will feature lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s near 70.

Another system will move across the area Thursday with even cooler air allowing morning lows in the lower 40s with daytime highs in the 60s Thursday, Friday, and possibly into the weekend. No precipitation is expected in the Tulsa area with the Thursday morning system, but a few showers would be possible to the southeast of the metro for a brief time. We'll keep a slight mention of a shower for the Thursday frontal passage, but this would be in the form of a 10% pop.

Extended data suggest another system early next week. Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone