Much, Much Colder

Keep the following two numbers in mind for the rest of this week, through the weekend and quite likely well into the following week: 64/42. Those are the normal max/min temperatures at this time of year. Since today's high made it all the way up to 79, we were 15 degrees above normal for our afternoon high but you can say goodbye to those numbers as a strong cold front is sweeping across the state this evening and overnight.

Notice how much and how quickly temperatures have already fallen in the 3 hour period ending earlier this evening in NW OK, map courtesy of the OK Mesonet. That much colder air means that by morning, most of us will be at or barely above freezing along with northerly winds of 20-30 mph putting our wind chill values into the low 20s. We started the day today at a balmy 55 degrees so Tuesday morning will be about 20 degrees colder with respect to temperature and about 30 degrees colder with respect to what it will feel like.

The afternoon high on Tuesday will struggle to get above 40 and since we made it to 79 today, that will be almost a 40 degree change in temperature. Not only that, but northerly winds of 15-25 mph will keep the wind chill values generally in the 30s. Although we will start the day with overcast skies, the drier air brought in by those gusty northerly winds will also bring much drier air in at the surface and aloft so we should at least see plenty of afternoon sunshine.

Although this will be quite a change for this time of year, it is a far cry from a record. Turns out that on Nov 11, 1911 we went from an afternoon high of 85, which is still a record, to a low the next morning of 15, which is also still a record. So, it could be worse.

Once the cold air settles in, it will hang around for quite a while. In fact, morning lows in the 20s and daytime highs generally in the 30s to low 40s will be the general rule right on through the coming weekend and below normal temperatures are also expected well into the following week. Notice the 8-14 day outlooks which continue to show a strong signal suggesting below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. Again, remember the normal max/min mentioned earlier; we will most likely stay 15-20 degrees below those numbers.

Speaking of precipitation, with the cold air in place and a general cyclonic flow aloft over us, there remains the possibility that a system could drop into that flow and amplify enough to bring us a chance of a wintry mix. Right now, the longer range guidance is suggesting that possibility this coming weekend, but the guidance is still inconsistent enough to create considerable uncertainty. Even if some wintry precipitation does develop, it would most likely be on the light side but this is something that will be closely monitored in subsequent data runs.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot