Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Rain Chances Through Saturday

Wow, where did that come from? Those showers and storms that dropped this way out of KS during the late night and morning hours turned out to have quite a punch, with hail and locally heavy rainfall.

Notice the rainfall totals for today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, and keep in mind much of that rain fell in a short period of time resulting in some localized drainage issues. Our main weather data base is initialized around 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. each day with output generally available after 9 a.m. & 9 p.m. It was not until after the evening initialization and data output came in that the possibility of some early morning showers/storms over NE OK became apparent. And, even then, the possibility of 2 inches or more of rain was certainly not anticipated; all that to say the weather here in OK can still pull some surprises from time to time, and this morning was a perfect example.

Having said that, there will be additional chances for showers/storms for Friday and again on Saturday. As you can see on our forecast page, the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall is not all that great, but the possibility will exist for some locally heavy rainfall under those showers/storms that do occur.

After that, our chances of rain drop into the slim to none category going into next week and quite likely for the following week as well. Once again, referring to the 7-day QPF map reveals most of what does fall should be on the light side; but, then again, that has been the case for several days now and certainly did not foresee what occurred this morning.

With respect to temperatures, the clouds that lingered for much of the day after the showers fell apart certainly helped hold temperatures down today, as you can see on the max/min temperature map. In fact, here in Tulsa, we have been below normal with respect to temperatures every day since back on the 19th of the month and only two days have been warmer than normal since the 11th of the month. So, if August has seemed cooler than normal, indeed it has; in fact, the period from the 19th through today is now tied as the 2nd coolest on record, and also stands as the 2nd wettest on record, using data for here in Tulsa.

Referring again to our forecast page, temperatures over the next few days should remain just below normal due to the partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies that are expected through Saturday. After that, more sunshine and southerly winds should keep temperatures at or a bit above normal going into next week.

Speaking of the winds, they will remain rather light, even on Saturday when a weak boundary will try to push into the state. Southerly winds ahead of the boundary and northerly winds behind the boundary will be on the light side no matter how far the boundary penetrates. As a result, not much of a contrast in temperatures is anticipated and that boundary will wash out on Sunday anyway with a return to southerly winds that should persist through next week.

Notice the 8-14-day outlook graphics which suggest above normal temperatures and only scattered showers or storms through that time frame. If that outlook verifies, then the unusually cool conditions of the last half of August will be replaced by a very warm start to September. In other words, summer is not over yet.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot