Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Storms Early Tuesday, Some Severe

Suggest keeping a close eye on the sky for later tonight and especially through the morning hours of Tuesday, as a very strong system will be pushing a line of storms across the state and some may be severe.

The time of day and the time of year are not particularly conducive to severe weather, but the strength of this system has already overcome some of those odds with severe weather in the High Plains late this afternoon. Although the instability will not be very impressive due to a nearly saturated environment as the showers and storms move through, the strength of the winds at the surface and aloft will be more than enough to overcome that limitation, with damaging winds from storms the greatest threat.

Some local spin-ups cannot be completely ruled out either, along with brief periods of very heavy rains. As you can see on the 24-hour rainfall map, some locations have already received an inch or so of rain with more on the way. The additional rainfall for the next 24 hours could easily be another inch or more, as you can see on the QPF map; and since that will likely fall in a relatively short period of time, then drainage issues may also be a problem.

The pattern currently suggests that we will have widespread showers with possibly some thunder going into the night, the a N-S line of storms will be forming and moving eastward for later tonight and into the morning hours. Currently, it appears that the timing would bring that line to along the Highway 75 area near or just before sunrise, and then the line should be east of the area and into Arkansas by early afternoon. That will be followed by clearing skies for the afternoon hours and lots of sunshine for the next few days.

Strong southerly winds in advance of the system will keep temperatures steady or even warming overnight as we should stay in the upper 50s to low 60s tonight. Some cooling will take place as the line of storms moves eastward so our noon time temperatures will likely be cooler than overnight, but the afternoon sunshine should also produce a rebound into the 60s and perhaps even 70 for some locations.

After that, as you can see on our forecast page, a more stable pattern will prevail for the rest of the week going into the coming weekend. Some re-enforcing cooler air will drop temperatures, particularly over the weekend when we may see temperatures near the freezing mark. That should be followed by a moderating trend in temperatures going into at least the early part of next week.

After that, the longer range guidance going into the end of the month suggests another round of unsettled weather during that time frame along with temperatures averaging below normal. That does not necessarily imply that Thanksgiving Day will be cold and wet as the data has, so far, not been very consistent at that time range.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot