Warm Wednesday, Chances Of Severe Weather Overnight For Green Country

Our overnight batch of shower and thunderstorm activity continues moving out of the area early this morning with most locations drying out from the overnight activity.  A few showers may persist for the early morning hours, but these will not be impactful.  We could also see some patchy fog or drizzle in a few locations as low level moisture streams northward.  Gusty south winds quickly return by midday to afternoon along with a big jump into the mid and upper 70s later today.  We could even see some areas of sun before clouds move back into the area this evening in advance of our main storm system.  Additional storms are likely to move into our area from the west or southwest overnight through the first part of Thursday morning.  Some of these may be strong to severe.

A powerful upper level system is located across the western United States this morning.  Part of this system will eject eastward over the next 36 to 48 hours around the base of the main trough, while part of the system may remain cut-off from the flow to our west later this week.  Strong upper level winds nearing 80 knots will slam across the southern plains later tonight into Thursday morning and will provide more than adequate lift for strong to severe storms across part of the state.   As pressure falls across the Rockies, a surface low will develop near Eastern Colorado with strong south winds responding later today and tonight from the south at 15 to 25 mph.  This should bring higher dew points and better moisture across the area later this afternoon before storms arrive overnight.  Our main window for storms will begin approximately by 11pm and will continue overnight through early Thursday morning.  Some of the storms could be severe with damaging winds and hail main threats along with pockets of heavy rainfall.  Due to the shear, a tornado would be possible, but the overall tornado threat remains low.

After Thursday morning storms, a few additional storms could develop Thursday afternoon across extreme southeastern OK before moving out of the state.  By afternoon, gusty southwest winds from 20 to 30 mph will be likely across most of the state, with highs reaching the upper 70s along with some sunshine before a cold front nears by Thursday evening bringing north winds and falling temps.  We'll drop almost 40 degrees by Friday morning with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s and afternoon highs reaching only the upper 40s north or lower 50s south.  A surface ridge of high pressure builds into the central Kansas region early Saturday morning taking our morning temps into the upper 20s or lower 30s.  Weekend highs will reach 50 Saturday and the mid-50s Sunday.  Another system may brush the area Sunday, but I'll only include low pops for now.  It does appear that next week will also feature active weather with additional storm chances at times with a gradual warm-up into Tuesday.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone