Thursday, February 15th 2018, 4:06 am
We’re anticipating more warm air later today with highs nearing the upper 70s to lower 80s before another strong front rolls across the state later tonight bringing colder weather back to the region Friday into Saturday morning. The pattern will remain active with a few mentions for precip in the 7 days planner including a chance later tonight near and south of the metro. Friday morning most of the precip will be across far southern Oklahoma. Late Friday night into Saturday morning a system will bring rain back across the Red River and some of this may expand near the metro. Another system will be nearing Monday into Tuesday with additional precip chances.
We’ve seen a few small areas of passing sprinkles and drizzle early this morning across northern Oklahoma. The pavement may be damp in some spots across the area this morning but will quickly dry out with gusty southwest winds and warming weather. Model data is trending even higher with temps southwest of the metro today. Locations to the west, despite the increase in low level moisture, will have elevated fire danger issues today due to the increasing fire spread potential with wind speeds from 15 to 25 mph.
The front will move across the area tonight bringing a chance for a narrow line of showers with a few rumbles of thunder. Severe weather is not expected. The front will enter northern Oklahoma around 8 pm and should pass the metro around 9 pm to 10 pm. Locations from OKM to MKO to near TQH will see the front around midnight with locations near McAlester to Wilburton having a frontal passage around 2 am. Winds will quickly increase speeds from the northeast and with windy to breezy conditions lasting through Friday midday or so. After early Friday morning, I anticipate most, if not all of the precip, will be removed from most of our area of concern. There may be a few showers lingering across far southeastern Oklahoma for an hour or two Friday morning.
Later Friday night into Saturday morning another wave will move out of the desert southwest and bring rain quickly into the Red River Texoma Valley region. The models differ on how far north this may evolve. Some data brings this into the metro early Saturday morning while the majority of output keeps it slightly south, where locations will have a much higher likelihood of Saturday morning rain.
Temps Saturday morning will start in the lower to mid-30s. We’ll need to watch the precip output across southern OK for the possibility of some light wintry mid but the odds will remain very low and out of the forecast for now. There will be a small window for some light freezing rain across extreme northwestern Arkansas but this should remain to the east of our immediate area. After the wave exits the area Saturday midday, temps will move back into the upper 50s near 60 by the afternoon. Sunday morning lows will be in the upper 30s with another warming trend for the afternoon with highs in the mid-60s along with breezy south winds as our next upper level wave nears the state. In response a surface area of low pressure will develop across the state Monday and move eastward Tuesday with another surface frontal passage. Active weather is likely with pops Monday into Tuesday before cooler air arrives Tuesday into Wednesday.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
February 15th, 2018
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