Storm Chances, Heat Advisories & A Sunday Front

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TULSA, Okla. - Summer heat continues on Friday and temperatures will continue through the weekend.

Here are the details from News On 6 Meteorologist Alan Crone:

Warm and slightly muggy weather remains on Friday before increasing heat and humidity arrive Saturday. A few storms will remain possible in a few locations. A Sunday front brings some minor relief Monday before triple-digit temperatures return by the middle and end of next week.

A few showers and storms are located across the western third of Oklahoma on Friday morning. It's unlikely that any of this activity will sneak into Northeastern Oklahoma but a few showers may approach the I-35 region at midday. This could result in a few scattered showers or storms scotting into the far western sections of our immediate area, but the chance remains low through the day. Our focus will continue to the west where additional shower and storm chances will occur late Friday afternoon and early evening. There is a persistent signal in some of the high-resolution data regarding a small complex of storms developing and moving across the Red River Valley later Friday night through pre-dawn Saturday. The high-resolution data frankly has not been very good over the last few days. Predictability and confidence are relatively low with the solution, but it's something obviously we'll need to monitor in the forecast variables. Another small complex may also brush extreme northern OK and southeastern Kanas later tonight. If you do experience a thunderstorm, gusty winds and some heavy rainfall would be possible, including a low chance of a severe thunderstorm warning. Due to loosened tree limbs from this past weekend’s storms, some of these could drop with any storm activity that arrives. The rest of the weekend will be dominated by the return of summerlike heat and humidity.

A persistent mid-level ridge of high pressure located across Texas the past two weeks will continue nudging northward into part of Central Oklahoma early tomorrow and then through the northern part of the state tomorrow afternoon. The periphery of the ridge will be very close to the Oklahoma and Kansas state line region. A seasonally strong upper-level flow will persist across part of the central plains this weekend. This will spark additional thunderstorms slightly north of the state line. A very small window of northwest flow may still exist across extreme Northeastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas this weekend allowing a storm system to brush this region. Most of our area we'll see very hot and humid conditions tomorrow with Saturday afternoon highs into the mid and upper 90s. Tropical-like dew point temperatures into the lower 70s will ensure that heat index values grow into the heat advisory criteria range from 105 to near 110. Despite the presence of the ridge, a weak cold front is likely to move across part of Northeastern Oklahoma Sunday afternoon and evening. This could spark a few scattered showers and storms across extreme eastern Oklahoma with a few becoming strong and severe. More importantly, this brings northeast winds late Sunday night into early Monday, which will suppress some of the tropical moisture south of our area for a few days. Monday afternoon highs are still anticipated in the lower to mid-90s, but we'll get a break from the excessive humidity. The ridge is anticipated to strengthen for most of next week allowing triple-digit temperatures across the majority of Oklahoma from Wednesday through Friday. Global model data suggest another possible pattern change by the weekend, which may allow a weak upper-level system to bring a storm system near our area.

Tropical Storm Brett is west of the Lesser Antilles this morning, moving westward. Tropical Storm Cindy remains in the Central Atlantic. Both systems do not appear to be reaching hurricane status through their life cycle. Nor will they have direct impacts on the continental United States.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV