David Payne's Winter Forecast

After a stormy start to November with 75 tornado warnings, Oklahomans can expect winter weather that’s likely to be less extreme, according to Chief Meteorologist David Payne. Payne shared his winter weather forecast, predicting a milder winter with below-average snowfall for most of the state.

"We have been analyzing the data from all across the globe, and we've put all that together to come up with ... what we think is going to happen over the next several months," said Payne.

Oklahoma typically averages 6.7 inches of snow per winter season, but recent years have seen lower totals. In 2023, the state saw just 3.4 inches, while the 2020-2021 season was an exception, with over 20 inches of snow.

Early November rains provided some relief to the state’s ongoing drought. Payne said that this winter is expected to see a weak La Niña pattern, marked by cooler sea surface temperatures, which could influence Oklahoma’s weather in the coming months.

"La Niña, ocean sea surface temperatures, are going to be a little bit cooler, at least along the equator," Payne said. "And the polar vortex, that area of low pressure up in Canada and the Arctic Circle, that's going to come south."

For precipitation, Payne predicts an average level for the winter months, though some areas may experience below-average rainfall. Southern Oklahoma may see drier-than-normal conditions, while the northern U.S. is expected to have above-average precipitation. Temperature-wise, Payne expects Oklahoma’s winter temperatures to stay close to average.

As for snowfall, Payne anticipates below-average totals. "We're going to be warmer ... a little bit above average. So we have some rain events in there," he said. "Less snow than average." He added that Oklahoma City could see snow and Arctic air off and on, but “overall, not a winter to remember.”

"Whatever comes our way, the weather team is ready. Storm trackers are ready for the big winter of 2024 into 2025," he said.