EXCLUSIVE POLL: Russell Still Leads 5th District Race, Despite McAffrey Gains

An exclusive News 9 poll shows Republican Steve Russell continues to lead Democrat Al McAffrey in Oklahoma's 5th District U.S. Representative seat, which includes Oklahoma City.

The latest survey of 423 likely voters in the district shows Russell leading with 49 percent. McAffrey gained seven points since News 9's September poll, but stills trails with 37 percent. Independents Robert Murphy (2 percent) and Buddy Ray (1 percent) are also on the ballot. Eleven percent of voters are undecided.

Bill Shapard, whose company SoonerPoll.com conducted the poll, said the race is still open wide. He said although Russell, a Republican, has a double-digit lead in a district which favors Republicans and conservatives, there is an interesting situation that could help McAffrey.

Democrat Connie Johnson is running for U.S. Senate. Shapard said if Johnson can get black voters to turn out at a level that Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012, it could help McAffrey.

“There's a higher percentage of African-Americans in the 5th District as opposed to the state overall. So as they vote predominantly more Democrat, it will have an impact that they're going in to vote for [Johnson] and they're going in to vote for Al McAffrey as well,” Shapard said. “There's a month left in the campaign, there's a lot that remains be seen.”

The general election is Nov. 4.

The survey of 423 likely 5th Congressional District voters was conducted Sept. 27-29 by SoonerPoll.com and has a margin of error of +/- 4.76 percentage points. Results are weighted by age and sex, stratified to Oklahoma CD 5 likely voter demographics.