Summer-Like Weather Continues Before Front Arrives

More summerlike weather remains today with highs in the lower 90s.  A few isolated showers or storms may be possible across far southeastern OK later this afternoon, but the odds will remain rather low. The main item of interest continues to be the cold front arriving Thursday afternoon and evening across northern OK with scattered shower and thunderstorm chances followed by a modest cool-down Friday.  The impact of this front will be short-lived.  Midlevel ridging is expected to quickly return this weekend into early next week with more unseasonably warm weather heading back into northeastern OK.  The pattern support for more active weather also remains for the second half of next week into the following weekend.  We’re seeing the signals for cooler air developing north and trying to make a run at the southern plains around the start of fall or possibly right afterwards.  The first mountain snows in Utah were recorded yesterday.  Always a good sign for fall lovers.

 The main upper air pattern remains mostly from the southwest this morning but will become more zonal (west to east) this afternoon and Thursday as a powerful upper level system ejects across the central plains states Thursday night into Friday.  This is a strong upper level system, but the main trajectory and upper air pattern suggests greater shear and severe weather parameters will remain to our north, where some severe weather is likely across parts of the central plains into the Midwest both today and Thursday.  

WARN Radar

The surface cold front is expected to move southward, to near Wichita and Ponca City to Woodward by Thursday afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing near this feature during this time period.  Later Thursday night, as the above-mentioned upper trough pulls quickly away from the central plains, the surface boundary will slow down its southward movement and eventually stall around the I-40 corridor region by Friday morning to midday.   I think our best window for storms will be Thursday from 6pm to about 4am Friday morning.  A few lingering showers may great us for the Friday morning commute, but widespread activity for this Friday morning period will be a lower chance.   Friday afternoon or evening, if the boundary remains intact, additional storms will develop across southeastern OK and may drift northeast with time through pre-dawn Saturday.  More than likely the front will become diffuse and basically fall apart.  Our cooler weather will last about a day with Friday afternoon highs in the mid-80s, due mostly to lingering cloud cover.

 This weekend will feature lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s along with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.  Heat index values will climb back into the mid-90s with south winds around 10 to 20 mph.

A small easterly type wave will develop Sunday into Monday with a few showers possible across extreme eastern OK or Arkansas for early next week, but this is a stretch.  Our forecast will remain dry for the early to middle part of next week.

The pattern supports another stronger front nearing the central plains by the end of next week.   We’ll put this on the back-burner and see how the data looks next week.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone