Monday Morning Update

The focus of the forecast remains centered on a major arctic cold front arriving late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and the chance of wintry precipitation Thursday into Friday and possibly Saturday evening.  Some accumulating snow is possible across northern OK.  Temperatures Thursday through Sunday may stay below freezing including daytime readings.  

We're looking at some dense fog this morning through the next several hours before a weak frontal boundary near the state lifts northeast.  This will result in mild afternoon highs with temperatures this afternoon reaching the mid-60s.  South winds will increase speeds in the 15 to 25 mph range.  Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail through the midday periods with some sun later today. The dense fog will persist through the 9am hour.   

Tuesday morning readings will start in the 40s and finish near 70 with partly to mostly cloudy conditions.  The strong arctic front will arrive either late Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  I anticipate a fast frontal intrusion meaning Wednesday temps would begin the day in the 40s and finish in the lower to mid-30s.  A few showers may be possible near the boundary, but the overall chance will remain low.  Some model data brings a veering profile across the state Wednesday morning effectively shunting most if not all low level moisture east or southeast of the area.  We'll not carry any pops for the Wednesday period. 

The first surge of cold air arrives Wednesday with a secondary and deeper surge of cold air Thursday.  The magnitude of the air-mass appears very strong and would result in a prolonged time period of sub-freezing temperatures Thursday through Sunday and possibly Monday.  

The upper air flow will remain from the southwest late this week.  This pattern is favorable for developing wintry precip across the region with cold air expected to be in place.  The models have trended toward a deeper air mass across the northern third of the state which would indicate mostly a snow profile with any precipitation Thursday and Friday.  The air mass may remain shallow across the southern third of the state resulting in an ice-sleet profile for the Thursday time period before deepening significantly Friday with an all snow profile across most of the state.  

The actual amount of snowfall depicted via the various model data output hasn't changed significantly over the last 3 runs.  Locations near the I-44 corridor would be in the running for 2 to 4 inches of snow with higher amounts across far NE OK.  Locations along the I-40 corridor into south-central or southeastern OK may see more of a wintry mix which would limit the accumulating snowfall from 1 to 2 inches.   These amounts will continue to be re-fined with each model run and may still undergo some changes.  

We may have another brush of some wintry precip ( snow) Saturday evening into Sunday  before the lift in the southwest flow clears the region.   

We encourage residents to remain aware of the weather and the forecast for the next few days.  Some changes may still occur but the trend of much colder air with a chance of wintry precipitation continues to be forecasted for the middle to end of the week.  Confidence for some wintry precipitation accumulation also continues to increase.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 54 recorded at 2:59pm.

The normal daily average high is 53 and the low is 33.

The daily records for Tulsa include a high of 76 recorded on this date in 2012, 1995, and 1956. The record low is 9 from 2006.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma news Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour. 

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV