More Rain Today

The heavy rain event continues today across most of northeastern OK and western Arkansas.  Flash flooding will be a major concern today.  Rivers, creeks, and streams will more than likely experience major flooding in the days ahead.

Additional moisture continues to be drawn into East Texas, Eastern OK, and western Arkansas as a major upper level trough becomes nearly stationary to our west.  This cut off low will remain near the area until Thursday before it moves to the northeast keeping a chance of precipitation, some heavy, in our forecast for the next three days.  The precipitation will be out of the forecast by Friday into the weekend with mostly sunny and warmer conditions expected Saturday and Sunday.

This morning additional rain and storm activity will move across Texas into most of eastern Ok and western Arkansas.  Observational data early this morning (2am) suggests the rain will last for most of the morning before possibly sliding slightly eastward by early afternoon.  GFS model data indicates the heavier precipitation bands will quickly move eastward today and would give the Tulsa metro a break by early morning.    At this point, this solution appears to be overdone, and I'll side more with the wet EURO and NAM data which would support a nearly 100% pop for most of the day.  

Model data indicates the upper level low may dry slot the region for part of Thursday or Friday, but we'll need to keep a chance of showers and storms in the region during this time period.  If the GFS data is correct, part of the dry slot would impact Wednesday with a reduced chance of showers or storms.  We currently call for an 80% pop for Wednesday, but this number may come down slightly to account for the lack of confidence regarding when or if a dry slot will begin to take shape.

Thursday the air aloft will remain cold as the closed low over northern Ok begins to lift northeastward.  This pattern would support low topped super cell storms, some of which could produce some hail and even a few cold air funnels.  We currently will keep a 30 to 40% chance of storms for Thursday as the low begins to move northeast, but this pop will be confined to the northeastern part of the state including the Tulsa metro.

Record rainfall:

Tulsa International received 2.81 inches of rainfall yesterday breaking the previous daily record of 1.15 inches of rain set on March 19, 1968. 

Some additional rainfall reports as of 2:10AM:

Skiatook  2.94

Pryor  4.74

Porter  4.12

Okmulgee 2.92

Oilton  3.40

Bixby  3.32