Oklahoma's Key House Races In Upcoming Election

The election next Tuesday will determine not only who the next President is but also, importantly, who controls Congress. Every member of the House and a third of senators are on the ballot, and the stakes are very high.

Neither of Oklahoma's senators is up for re-election this cycle, but four of five House seats are in the mix Tuesday. And while it's unlikely there will be any change in Oklahoma's delegation, the delegation's overall influence could change dramatically, depending on what happens in all of the other races -- especially a handful of very tight House races in California, Oregon and New York.

"There will absolutely be ramifications, should the House flip," said Mike Reed, a principle at the bipartisan consulting firm Cornerstone.

In an interview Wednesday, Reed, a former chief of staff at the Republican National Committee, said Republicans are quite confident that the Senate will flip to GOP control; but they're less certain about retaining the majority in the House.

"If Republicans are able to hang on to the House," Reed said, "even by a slim margin, which is possible--even slimmer than they have now, if that's even possible--that would be a huge deal for Oklahoma, for your members to be able to retain those committee chairmanships."

'Huge', because the state's House delegation currently holds key leadership positions that are amplified when their party is in the majority.

In District 1, Kevin Hern, chair of the Republican Study Committee, has two opponents Tuesday, Democrat Dennis Baker and Independent Mark Sanders.

In District 2, Josh Brecheen is being challenged by Democrat Brandon Wade and Independent Ronnie Hopkins.

In District 3, Science Committee Chair Frank Lucas will be unopposed on Tuesday; he won the Republican primary in June.

In District 4, Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole takes on Democrat Mary Brannon and Independent James Stacy.

And in District 5, Stephanie Bice faces Democrat Madison Horn.

One of Reed's colleagues at Cornerstone, Hyma Moore, agrees the Senate is likely to switch to Republican control but says Democrats believe they can do the same in the lower chamber.

"There's a chance right now," said Moore in an interview Wednesday, "and we've been saying this for a couple of weeks, that Democrats will take the House."

Moore, also a principle at Cornerstone, worked for several years at the Democratic National Committee. He and Reed say the difference between being in the majority and minority in the House is big.

"When you're in the majority and you have chairmanships that are super powerful," said Moore, "that effects a lot of direct change to those delegations in those states."

"The committees really control a lot of power in Washington," Reed explained, "and to be in the minority, it just doesn't give [the members] the ability to bring up the issues, bring up different legislation, different hearings they may want to bring up. So, it absolutely could affect those members in terms of having power in Washington.